Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 23.099149 24.435266 25.844637 27.448355 29.230486 31.159316 33.417288
2026-01-18 21.102385 22.927628 24.945878 27.364961 30.215831 33.508242 37.658566
2026-01-25 19.676849 21.729887 24.067320 26.963970 30.513957 34.803144 40.511145
2026-02-01 18.562851 20.754702 23.306785 26.553451 30.660297 35.812812 43.000120
2026-02-08 17.639087 19.917925 22.619776 26.131922 30.694420 36.608064 45.211827
2026-02-15 16.948460 19.307207 22.149563 25.917683 30.935253 37.643441 47.815545
2026-02-22 16.657238 19.158328 22.226433 26.384071 32.078477 39.972287 52.556857
2026-03-01 16.100921 18.643822 21.802860 26.151777 32.232263 40.893245 55.247573
2026-03-08 15.420324 17.939499 21.096741 25.491755 31.727833 40.787407 56.243338
2026-03-15 14.927090 17.452973 20.648747 25.151392 31.644316 41.286866 58.290115
2026-03-22 14.789557 17.415910 20.784112 25.613215 32.744143 43.689086 64.000723
2026-03-29 14.598589 17.298105 20.801452 25.902667 33.598434 45.775480 69.508386
2026-04-05 14.376772 17.140015 20.768547 26.134845 34.409426 47.925431 75.706240
2026-04-12 14.070770 16.858204 20.553554 26.088638 34.779790 49.364532 80.778645
2026-04-19 13.676449 16.442707 20.134728 25.715099 34.592559 49.787184 83.691887
2026-04-26 13.305024 16.046277 19.727247 25.336955 34.368857 50.115092 86.457806
2026-05-03 12.951572 15.663744 19.325574 24.947737 34.099040 50.326352 88.992746
2026-05-10 12.678270 15.383028 19.058077 24.749826 34.134568 51.117086 93.199601
2026-05-17 12.613668 15.387142 19.195540 25.180569 35.267539 54.175244 104.465058
2026-05-24 12.359554 15.119578 18.930550 24.966081 35.258304 54.925735 109.387686
2026-05-31 12.000962 14.697299 18.428543 24.356074 34.511937 54.071021 109.145414
2026-06-07 11.743426 14.411422 18.118446 24.041165 34.278035 54.283458 112.436116
2026-06-14 11.709540 14.439062 18.267901 24.468396 35.412460 57.576088 127.430155